Analysis of the dynamics of causes of traffic accidents and forecasting dangerous events

Abstract

The problem of the road accidents and significant injuries on the roads is described. Every year, 1.35 million people die in road accidents worldwide, of which about 50% are pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists, and countries lose about 3% of the gross domestic product. There is also a dependence that the higher is the country's development, the lower is the number of road accidents, similarly to the age of the vehicle - the newer is the car, the less it gets into a road accident. The causes of the road accidents in Ukraine are analyzed for the years of 2018–2020, because their study allows planning and implementing the measures to reduce hazards in the system of "Driver – Car – Road – Environment". In recent years, the main causes of the accidents and related injuries in Ukraine were: speeding (7586–9999 events), maneuvering problems (5201–5522), violations at intersections (2959–2352), insufficient distance (2420–1445), violations at pedestrian crossings (1683–1680), drunk driving (911–1819), etc. Assessment of the dynamics of the accident causes showed the largest increase in the following dangerous events – passenger safety violations (+ 73 %), exceeding the safe speed of the vehicle (+ 31.8 %), violation of the rules of pedestrian crossings (+ 10.5 %) and etc. The dynamics of injuries during road accidents has a negative trend of growth from 24294 to 26141 cases over the past three years in Ukraine, and forecasting has shown a further increase, so one needs to plan and create external influences to normalize the situation – legislative (additional regulation of traffic), managerial (to create and implement managerial measures of road safety), technical (to create new means of car and road safety), organizational (to organize a higher level of car and road safety measurers) and others.